2008-2009 Winter Outlook

10-30-08

52 days till the start of winter and the first snow flakes of the season have already fallen! Most of you probably didn’t even realize it unless you were one of the few that withstood the ugly and freezing football game in Athens Tuesday night. This may seem early because it’s not Halloween yet, and the official start of winter isn’t until the 21st of December. At 7:04 in the morning. Just remember, the first flakes and even first snowfall mean nothing to where the astronomical positioning of the sun is to earth.

Now that the first long lasting cold spell has settled in for a few days, what does the rest of the winter have in store for southeast Ohio? I will break down the winter month by month in my “official” outlook based off of the climilogical trends of the past months and even years. I also will consider and compare other things that have proven an influence to our winter weather including the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation Event) and PNA (Pacific North American Pattern).

Not intending to make an attempt to be on the safe side, but “average” may be the word for the winter season. Each month will have its extremes that counter the other month’s extremes leveling out to be average for the entire season. These extremes include warm and cold months along with dry to wet months.



Colder temperatures and early snows will plague our November and December. There won’t be much in the way of strong storms, just long-lived cold spells. These spells will remain after a system brings small amounts of rain that will turn to snow late in the event.

Early accumulating snows around Thanksgiving seem to be guaranteed thanks to a cold pattern setting up similar to the one experienced at the end of October. Looking all around the globe earlier than normal snows are occuring, including giant snowstorms in China, record snows in Switzerland, early snows in the United Kingdom, and the earliest blizzard the United States has seen in a long time in the west plains. We will get our early snow due to a strong trough that will be digging into the eastern US by mid-November. This trough will help funnel cold artic air into the area and will not push out until the latter part of the month.

By mid to late December, things will dry out substantially. The Pacific/North American Pattern will become cooler as cold water off of the west coast will prevent low pressures from being maintained into the US. These systems usually fall apart over the mountains but reform into strong systems in the plains if a trough is in place. Since there will be a ridge in the upper plains, this will carry low pressure systems from Canada (Alberta Clippers) from the northwest. These systems will bringing a few shots at small amounts of precipitation but nothing spectacular.

Here the origins for most major winter storms can be seen, the Alberta Clipper in Canada, the reformation of lows east of the Rockies, and the south plains where gulf moisture is available (discussed in January):



This cold start to winter will then be countered by a much warmer January. The month is going to be very similar to January 2008 with warm temperatures bringing a mid-winter thaw. Temperatures will near 70 on several short-lived occasions throughout the month but soon be blown out by strong artic winds that will bring us back to reality before the next warm up. The month will consist of a few strong storm systems that will contain severe weather events. Much of the severe weather will be in the southern states, but some for Ohio is very likely. Last year we saw a record number of tornadoes in the US for January; this season will be much of the same.

So far this year, there is neither an El Nino nor La Nina event in place in the central Pacific Ocean. Neutral temperatures remain in place in the tropical waters. These temperatures are projected to remain the same for the next three months with the brief exception of January. The first month of the year will be different likely due to a very, very, weak La Nina that is still dissipating from the early 2000’s. La Ninas occur when central tropical Pacific waters are cooler than average and over-lay the typical warm water in the ocean. In the middle of winter, La Nina still tends to show itself more than summer months and impact the weather for the US, even if it is weakening.

Here is the tendency for the US in weak La Ninas:



A normal determinant of whether or not January is wet or dry depends on systems following a storm track that gains access to the gulf. Moisture flow from the gulf helps fuel these systems and control the ability it has to strengthen.

The short spring break will be greeted with February and March, both socking us with another shot of winter reality. Snow will fall early in February with a big storm and will remain on the ground for most of the month as additional little snows continue to accumulate. Temperatures will struggle to get to average (42° F) and be near 3-4° below average, preventing little melting of snow.

March will consist of slightly warmer temperatures trending still below normal but warmer than February. This will bring a melting of any snow leftover, however, late winter storms are a big possibility. The last few years, conditions have been right for the rest of the state and they have received a major winter storm. This year our turn will come as a major winter storm will evolve the second week of March and perhaps we will share in the bliss of a foot of snow.

The February and March lower temperatures will offset January’s warm temperatures bringing the total winter average to just about near normal. Large amounts of rain in January thanks to strong storms feeding off of tropical moisture, combined with November and December’s early snows, and March’s big storms will bring the total precipitation above average for the winter. A majority of the precipitation will be snow, although January’s rainfall that will hamper the total winter snowfall.

So, reviewing the winter months of 2008-2009 will be like this:

November: colder than average, average precipitation, late snow.

December: colder than average, becoming dry late.

January: much warmer than average, above average rainfall, little snow, severe weather outbreaks possible.

February: much colder than average, average precipitation, early snow.

March: slightly colder than average, average precipitation, mid-month major snow storm.



If you have an idea for a write-up you would like done or have comments, feel free to contact me at my email cr898005@ohio.edu

Christopher Redmond
cr898005@ohio.edu