Recap of Winter 2008-2009
Winter has come and gone and finally Spring is here! It has been a long road for many Southeast Ohioans and many are very happy to see sunshine and warmer temperatures. Not to mention, the new vegetation and scenery is much easier on the eyes than was the barren trees and brown grass of winter. With winter gone I will take a few moments and verify my extended winter outlooks that were issued earlier in the year and make conclusions from that while also looking at a few key events that took place during the last four months.
Here is the roundup for the last five months:
Here were my projections for Winter 08-09, both the first and second outlook:
Here are some graphs depicting the highs, lows, and precipitation that occurred on each day of the last three months:
In conclusion, the outlooks were not terrible and things seemed to flow the way I expected with the exception of precipitation. Temperatures were nearly exactly what I predicted and just around normal with only a seasonal total of +0.08F of what it should have been over the last five months. Towards the end of the winter the temperatures were slowly starting to become much warmer than average. It would be interesting to see if this trend continues into the spring and summer.
The Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) according to the average Ocean Nino Index (ONI) began dropping negative (falling into a La Nina) in November. This trend is somewhat typical for this time of year although this year the temperature went lower than normal, -0.8C in January. This therefore led to the increased warming of temperatures. A La Nina winter usually means we see temperatures around +.03F (composite trend in the last 16 La Nina years) from Dec-Feb which is nearly exactly what we encountered.
Significant Weather Events of January and February
Several very large events occurred in southeast Ohio over the span of winter that greatly effected the population. Two events that I will briefly reflect upon is the major winter storm of late January and the significant wind event on February 11th. Both had a huge impact on the area and where very destructive.
On Monday, January 26 a strong slow moving low pressure system was gradually making its way out of the Red River Valley northeastward towards the Ohio Valley region. On Tuesday, January 27th, the warm front drifted north over the southern Ohio region bringing a start to snow showers that fell through much of the afternoon. By late evening the warm front had passed and a transition to freezing rain and some sleet had occurred. Freezing precipitation continued to fall overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. This freezing rain began accumulating rapidly on any exposed surface and quickly made any travel extremely hazardous. The freezing rain warranted Athens and all surrounding counties to be put under a level 3 snow emergency prohibiting any travel. The freezing rain turned into all rain for a brief period early Wednesday when a significant amount of rain fell. The cold front passed mid-morning across southeast Ohio bringing one last strong burst of snow showers with its passing. Accumulations for the Athens area were around 4 inches of snow topped with 3/4-1 inch of ice and another 1 inch of snow. The farther south and west you went the less snow and more ice that accumulated.
Weather maps depicting what occured from Monday, January 26th to Thursday, January 29th:
Many states were effected by this winter storm including Arkansas, Missouri, Kentucky, Ohio, Indiana, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and New York. Kentucky bore the brunt of the storm with over 609,000 homes and businesses losing power and it taking over 10 days to restore all power. The entire state was declared a disaster area by the president (FEMA). In Ohio nearly over 180,000 homes and businesses lost power including the Athens area that took a substantial hit. Many rural areas were without power for days and some even weeks. This system was a historical one, it closed many school districts in the state and even Ohio University was shut down for a day. In many forested areas you can still see the devastation caused by the storm that left a permanent mark on the area.
Another major system that affected the Ohio Valley was the severe wind event on February 11th. The event caused widespread damage to trees and buildings very similar to the hurricane Ike event last September. On the 11th the Storm Prediction Center had the Athens and surrounding area under a moderate risk for severe weather. Winds in excess of 70mph affected a majority of the area with peak gusts of 54mph at Scalia Lab (4mph below severe criteria), 76mph in Darke County, 66mph in Franklin County, 70mph in Clinton County, and 68mph in Scioto County. There were two fatalities that day due to winds, one from a semi being blown over onto a pickup in Madison County, OH and another when a gym roof collapsed on a person in McDowell County, WV. There was widespread damage including a 7-8 story brick building that was toppled in Scioto County, OH.
Storm Prediction Center severe weather reports for February 11th:
The cause for this wind was a low pressure on that was traveling northeastward into Canada that was located over northern Minnesota and Wisconsin on Tuesday, February 10th. This low weakened drastically over a 24 hour period and a secondary low developed south along the old systems cold front. This secondary low rapidly deepened as it tracked northeastward through the Ohio Valley. Help strengthening the low was a strong southernly wind flow that allowed temperatures to be much warmer than normal out ahead of the system that contrasted greatly with the arctic air that was behind it. The tracked right over the Athens area that recorded a central low pressure of 990mb at Scalia Lab when it went over. The strong winds are to blame because of the tight pressure gradient (PGF) surrounding the central core of the low. The low then rapidly moved up through New England continuing with destructive winds.
Weather map depicting the synoptic conditions for February 10-12:
Christopher Redmond
cr898005@ohio.edu
