Dr. Lance F. Bosart is a distinguished professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences at the University at Albany, State University of New York. He joined the University at Albany faculty after he received his Ph.D. in meteorology from
the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1969. He has been a distinguished professor since 2004. He is a weather scientist with a strong research interest in synoptic-dynamic meteorology.
He and his students work on a variety of mesoscale, synoptic-scale and planetary-scale research problems in the tropics, midlatitudes, and polar regions. He also works with his students on operationally oriented research problems through cooperative research projects with staff members of the National Weather Service under the auspices of the Cooperative Meteorology Education and Training (COMET) program run by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research and the Collaborative Science, Technology, and Applied Research (CSTAR) Program sponsored by the National Weather Service. He is a member of the American Meteorological Society and the Royal Meteorological Society. He is a Fellow of the American
Meteorological Society and the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Professor Bosart was the recipient of the American Meteorological Society's Jule
Charney Award in 1992. He was also the first recipient of the American Meteorological Society's Teaching Excellence Award (now the Edward N. Lorenz Teaching Award) in January 2002. Additionally, he was the recipient of the University at Albany/SUNY Award for Excellence in Research, 2001, and the State University of New York and the Research Foundation Board of Directors Award Honoring Research in Science, Engineering and Medicine, 2001. He was the 2015 Tzvi Gal-Chen Distinguished Lecturer at the School of Meteorology at the University of Oklahoma. He is a past editor of the Monthly Weather Review, a journal published by the American Meteorological Society. Currently (1 July 1998-30 September 2016), he holds an affiliate scientist appointment at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. He is the recipient of the 2016 Citizen of the University Award from the University at Albany Alumni Association. He will be honored by the American Meteorological Society with a special named
Bosart Symposium at the January 2017 annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society
in Seattle, WA.
Title of Presentation: Modern Weather Analysis and Forecasting: Challenges and Opportunities
Abstract of Presentation: This talk will provide an overview of the current status of modern weather forecasting. It will include a personal assessment of various science-and operations-related challenges and opportunities. The state-of-the-art of numerical model forecasting skills and trends in these skills over recent decades will be reviewed. This forecast overview will be presented from the perspective of someone who has followed the weather daily for decades, who has enjoyed the luxury of not sitting on the forecaster hot seat at the Storm Prediction Center (or the NCEP Weather Prediction Center), and who has made more wrong forecasts than almost anyone alive (just ask my wife).
Steadily increasing global model skill has implications for the current and likely future role of human forecasters in the weather forecasting enterprise. Routine weather forecast products are increasingly being automated. Forecasters in the future will increasingly concentrate on adding value to forecast products by employing their meteorological knowledge, their interpretive abilities, and their technical skills to interpret weather and climate forecasts, to advise the public and government officials about potential adverse weather impacts, and to create suites of special forecast products for public and private sector users. Forecasters of the future will increasingly have to think globally while being prepared to act regionally and locally. Adding value to forecast products will require that forecasters not treat model-derived products as a switch (i.e., either on or off), but from an ensemble and probabilistic perspective. Probabilistic forecasting will be increasingly the way of the future as will being able to recognize those situations in advance when the predictability horizon is likely to be unusually long or short. Examples of difficult forecast situations will be illustrated across a variety of time and space scales. These examples will be drawn from a variety of warm-and cold season weather events. Science and research opportunities for the large-scale, synoptic-scale, and mesoscale meteorologist of the future will also be presented.
Jeremy Bower is the owner of JRBStorm Photography and a graduate student with the School of Natural Resources at University of Nebraska-Lincoln. He graduated with a Bachelor of Science degree in Atmospheric Sciences/Meteorology from Ohio State University in June of 2005. During his undergraduate career, Jeremy passed through Lincoln multiple times while helping conduct storm chasing tours as a Driver/Forecaster for Storm Chasing Adventure Tours from 2002 through 2006. For that time period, he led domestic and international tourists on storm chasing expeditions throughout the Central Plains. From 2006 to 2009, Jeremy was an intern with the Lancaster County Emergency Management Agency where he provided severe weather briefings for the staff and was one of the lead forecasters for the Nebraska Vortex Intercept Team lead by Dr. Ken Dewey. His interest in photography spans 15 years and now has an enthusiasm to share his photographic interests and knowledge with the public. Photography can be viewed at www.flickr.com/jrbstorm.
Maura is an outdoor-loving, gear-headed, born-and-raised Michigander from near Detroit. She completed her B.S. in Meteorology from Central Michigan University in the Spring of 2013. While there, she studied mesoscale banded snowfall with a leading researcher in winter weather (a CMU professor). She went on to study various drought mechanisms as a part of the Michigan State University Department of Geography before joining the National Weather Service at Charleston, WV in January of 2016. Her journey with the NWS began at the New Orleans/Baton Rouge office as a student volunteer during the summer of 2012 between her junior and senior years at CMU. Areas of interest include winter weather (particularly lake effect snow), hydrology (including flash flooding), and hydroclimatology. During her time in Charleston, Maura has focused on winter weather science and preparedness, effective communication through social media, the local climate program, and the June flooding event.
Title of Presentation: Perspectives on the June 23rd 2016 West Virginia Flooding Event
Abstract of Presentation: The day of June 23rd 2016 saw multiple rounds of intense convection across central Appalachia, particularly across the state of West Virginia. Multiple factors including moist preconditions, upper-level/frontal support, high rain rates, terrain, and training storms led to catastrophic flash flooding across the Elk, Gauley, and Greenbrier River basins. The widespread nature of this flash flooding led to historical river flooding in these three basins along with the downstream New and Kanawha Rivers. The flooding resulted in 23 fatalities in West Virginia – 16 coming from Greenbrier County alone. Here, we discuss in greater detail the meteorological and hydrological factors that combined to create one of the worst flooding events in West Virginia history. In addition, extensive hydrological modeling by the Ohio River Forecast Center is examined and interesting, startling conclusions are drawn regarding the severity of river flooding that “could” have happened – particularly for the city of Charleston, WV.
Master Sergeant Wesley G. Green is the Weather Operations, Training, and Equipment Manager for Air Force Materiel Command (AFMC). He is responsible for the deployment posturing and training of 66 Airmen as well as the procedural compliance of six Air Force Materiel Command weather flights.
Sergeant Green grew up in Seguin, Texas, where he graduated from Seguin High School in May 2002 and enlisted in the Air Force later that year. Sergeant Green graduated from the Air Force Weather Course at Biloxi Air Force Base, Mississippi in May 2003 and reported to his first assignment at Sembach Air Base, Germany, where he was promoted to shift lead for the contingency weather cell and received individual recognition for outstanding support to the President of the United States.
After three years in Germany, Master Sergeant Green was reassigned to Offutt Air Force Base, Nebraska where he was the lead forecaster for the E-4, National Airborne Operations Center Recovery Team (NRT), a joint mission with the Nebraska National Guard. There he was singled out for his superior performance by the USSTRATCOM Commander, as well as the US Secretary of Defense.
Most recently, Master Sergeant Green was the interim Flight Chief at Joint Base Lewis-McChord, Washington where he led the Weather Flight to an “Excellent” rating in the 2012 Operational Readiness Inspection and also received the Distinguished Graduate award from the Noncommissioned Officer Academy.
Title of Presentation: The History of Military Meteorology and the Current Structure of Air Force Weather
Abstract of Presentation: Meteorology as a career field specialty originated in 1870 when “the Signal Corps established a congressionally mandated national weather service on November 1” (Roales, 2007, para. 1). Throughout the next hundred years, due to necessity, many revisions of the training and force composition were made to better leverage technology and increase military capabilities. Eventually, the specialty evolved and was integrated into most of the five branches of the military, but today’s Air Force Weather Career Field contains the most diverse array of professionals with a presence across much of the globe. My briefing will inform the audience on the organization of Air Force Weather to include the various specialties within, as well as inject my personal career path and military experience. Hopefully this information will provide the students of Ohio University with a better understanding of military weather and inform them of career path opportunities in the meteorological profession.
Biography: I received my bachelors, masters, and Ph.D. degrees from the Pennsylvania State University department of meteorology. My primary research focus uses high-resolution radar and in situ observations, as well as numerical simulations and data assimilation analysis, to understand a variety of convective-scale phenomenon, including: mesoscale details of environments supporting convection initiation and evolution to severe storms, supercell and mesoscale convective system dynamics, and tornadoes. During my masters work, I examined mobile radar observations of convective boundary layer heteorgenity and air mass boundary features duringthe International H20 Project (IHOP - 2002) to study daytime thunderstorm initiation. During my Ph.D. work, I examined storm-scale properties of supercell storms that affect the longevity of tornadoes. My postdoc work at Penn State entailed an examination tornadic supercells observed during the second Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment (VORTEX2 – 2009-2010) using high-resolution (0.5km) simulations and ensemble data assimilation of mobile radar and surface observations. My current research utilizes mobile radar, in situ, and satellite observations, and convective-scale data assimilation to understand the mesoscale environments of both daytime and nocturnal severe storm initiation and evolution. Since 2002, I have participated in eight field research experiments studying convection and other phenomena, and am highly interested in participating in future projects.
Title of Presentation: TBA
Abstract of Presentation: Mobile research radars and networks of in situ observing instruments have been deployed in several field projects over the last few decades to target poorly understood aspects of severe convective storms. Such observations have greatly increased our understanding of many aspects of severe convection, from its formation through mature stages. However, owing to limitations of mobile radar and in situ instrumentation (e.g., spatial coverage of dual-Doppler radar coverage, inadequate road networks for deployment, and difficulty obtaining thermodynamic observations aloft), there are several near-storm environmental and intra-storm processes that we do not fully understand that are required for better understanding and prediction of severe storms. High-resolution ensemble data assimilation has been recognized as a powerful tool for producing dynamically consistent kinematic and thermodynamic analyses of mesoscale and convective-scale phenomena by expanding the influence of limited observations to areas of a modeled analysis domain not directly observed. Therefore, a more thorough evaluation of near-storm environmental heterogeneity, convection initiation, and severe storm processes can be performed using gridded four-dimensional numerical analyses that synthesize fine-scale radar and in situ data, and numerical models, than by using the disparate observations or simulations in isolation.
This presentation discusses results of recent and ongoing efforts to assimilate mobile research observations collected during a variety of convective field projects into convection-resolving WRF model ensembles, utilizing the ensemble Kalman filter. Results will be shown from experiments assimilating radar and in situ observations collected in a tornadic thunderstorm during the second Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment (VORTEX2). Focus will be placed on diagnosing storm-scale cold pool, updraft, and downdraft processes influencing the formation, maintenance, and decay of a tornado that occurred within a supercell storm in Wyoming on 5 June 2009. Preliminary results from two other convective-scale data assimilation projects also will be shown. The first assesses the impact of assimilating super-rapid-scan GOES-derived wind vectors on improving mesoscale shear analyses surrounding severe storms. A second project aims to reproduce nocturnal convective-supporting environments by assimilating radar, surface, aircraft, and radiosonde data collected during the Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN - 2015) experiment to better understand convection initiation processes at night.
Biography: Capt Daniel C. Miller is a Staff Meteorologist, Air Force Operations Group, Headquarters Air Force, Pentagon, Washington D.C. In his current position, he provides liaison support for the White House Military Office and aides the Division’s weather team in delivering strategic weather decision support to the Secretary of Defense, Combined Joint Chiefs of Staff, Secretary of Staff of the Air Force. Additionally, he reports and anticipates global, environmental impacts for Joint Staff, National Military Command Center, Headquarters Air Force, and the Army Operations Center and serves as the weather operations component of the Air Force Crisis Action Team during national emergencies and military contingencies.
Capt Miller is originally from Athens, Ohio. He graduated from Ohio University in June 2009 with a bachelor’s degree in meteorology and was commissioned through the school’s Air Force ROTC program. Captain Miller’s first assignment began in July 2009 with the 28th Operational Weather Squadron, Shaw Air Force Base (AFB), South Carolina where he was Element Officer in Charge responsible for operational weather forecasts spanning 20 countries in the Middle East.
Capt Miller has also served as a Tactical Operations Officer in Charge with the US Army’s 2nd Infantry Division at Camp Red Cloud, South Korea. Captain Miller has deployments to Al Udeid Air Base (AB), Qatar as a member of 609th Combined Air Operations Center and to Amman, Jordan as the Joint Meteorological and Oceanographic Officer. Prior to his current assignment, the Captain held the leadership position of Weather Flight Commander, 51st Fighter Wing, Osan AB, South Korea.
Biography: I am currently Meteorologist-In-Charge of the NWS office in the Florida Keys, and have been in this role since April 2015. Our office has a full staff of 21 including 17 meteorologists. Prior to that I was an Emergency Response Specialist at the NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge office (from December 2011 to March 2015), where I was the team lead for one of the six Weather-Ready Nation pilot projects. As part of this project we provided on-site support for NWS core partners for many events including Super Bowl XLVII in New Orleans, Mardi Gras (multiple years), Navy Week, and the Boy Scout Jamboree in West Virginia. We pushed the office forward to utilize a whole-office approach to providing decision support. Prior to New Orleans I worked at the NWS Houston/Galveston office for almost 14 years as a summer intern, Intern, Journey Forecaster, and Lead Forecaster. I have been active in training development in the agency. I help to facilitate the Effective Hurricane Messaging Course each spring at the National Hurricane Center where we train NWS meteorologists to work tropical cyclone events. I have also helped facilitate the DSS Deployment Boot Camp at the NWS Training Center several times. I have also been part of the team which has vetted and tested the new storm surge inundation forecast graphics and Storm Surge Watch/Warning program, including conducting meetings with our NWS core partners to get their feedback. I have worked 18 tropical cyclones including Hurricane Rita, Hurricane Ike, Hurricane Isaac, and Tropical Storm Allison. My most memorable tropical experiences include being deployed for nine days at the Louisiana State EOC in Hurricane Isaac and going through the eyewall of Hurricane Ike as it passed over the Houston office.
I have a B.S. Degree in Meteorology from the University of Oklahoma. My hometown is Houston, Texas. I'm a huge runner: I have run over a dozen half marathons and am currently training for my fourth full marathon. My other big hobby is traveling. This past summer I took a two week safari to Botswana, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.
Biography: Randi is a perpetually sleep deprived Meteorologist and mother of two. She wakes up at 2AM each day, on purpose! After graduating from OU in 2003 she worked at WCBI in Columbus, Mississippi, then WDTN in Dayton, Ohio and for the last 10 years at WLWT in Cincinnati. She holds professional seals from the NWS and AMS. Randi was an outfielder for the softball team while at OU and met her husband, a Bobcat wrestler, in Rock and Roll History class.
Contact info: firstname.lastname@example.org or on twitter @RandiRicoWLWT
Title of Presentation: Things They Don't Teach You In School: The Real Life Of A TV Met.
Abstract of Presentation: Degree in hand and a new job living out your dream: forecasting the weather on TV in some new part of the county! Then alarm goes off at 2AM and you realize, you aren’t on Court Street, anymore! Scalia Lab gives you all the tools you need to nail the forecast but that’s only part of job. From crazy schedules, to social media to makeup what you need to know to get ready for your new life as a broadcast meteorologist.