About the Scalia Laboratory WRF Model

The Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF) is run and maintained by Scalia Laboratory Meteorologists Nick Engerer and Steven Porter. It is the culmuniation of efforts dating back to October 2006 when Dr. Ronald Isaac created the Ohio University WRF workgroup in cooperation with the Computer Sciences Department to research fast moving late season cold fronts in the Ohio Valley Region. That partnership has since faded. This relationship was replaced with the Ohio University Center for Air Quality, who hosted the computer system running the WRF model until 2009. As of Summer 2009, Scalia Lab now runs the WRF model on site on its own dedicated system.

Model Details

Our WRF model runs a total of four times a day, at 0Z, 6Z, 12Z and 18Z a at 12km resolution, and receives initialization and boundary condition data from awips32 data from NCEPs 32km North American Mesoscale Model (NAM) [located at: ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov] . As of July 21st, 2008 we are now running a 4km resolution nest at each runtime interval. For more specifics email Nick and Steve.

The Clickable Forecast Map

The Clickable Forecast Map aspires to create a high resolution forecast product for residents of Southeastern Ohio where such forecasts are hard to come by or even non-existant. By clicking on a map location, forecast images a generated based on WRF model output, and are delivered straight to the user *without the interpretation of a forecaster*. In many cases, these forecasts may be highly accurate and will provide the user with the benefit of a forecast tailored to their location, however they are not interpreted by any human element and therefore do not carry the same degree of confidence as is provided by Scalia Lab Forecasts or our friends at the National Weather Service. This map is new and experimental, and we would appreciate your feedback.

Model Output/Images

Model Output Statistics (MOS) is generated for each 4km run for the Athens area. Past MOS products for Athens can be viewed here. File format is YYYYMMDD-CC.txt, where CC is cycle. The entire archive is available as a tar archive for easy downloading.

Forecast images are generated using the Grid Analysis and Display System (GRADs) by using a program called ARWpost to manipulate the raw WRF output into data that is ready to be visualized. Here is information about a few of the images:

Skew-T - The skew T is generated for Athens, OH (39.3N, 82.1W) and is used to predict the evolution of the upper atmosphere. Temperature(C) is plotted on the x-axis and pressure (mb) is plotted on the y-axis. The orange line shows the trajectory a parcel would follow if released from the surface, the right most green line shows the actual environmental temperature and the left most green line shows the dewpoint of the atmosphere.

850RH - This is an experimental graphic developed in an attempt to determine where low level clouds will develop over the region. Areas with greater relative humidities indicate where clouds are likely to form.

MaxDbz - Simulated reflectivity is derived from the WRF model output, and the maximum predicted values are visualized in these images.

Rain Total - At this time, only total rain accumulated from the start of a model run is available, making only the first few forecast periods usable. Currently, we are working on a way to provide 3-hour intervals of rainfall totals.

MUCAPE - Most Unstable CAPE is a representation of the total amount of potential energy available to the most unstable parcel of air in the lowest 300mb (~1000-700mb) of the atmosphere as it is lifted to the LFC (Level of Free Convection).

LCL - Stands for Lifted Condensation Level, or when a dry air parcel will reach a temperature at which it will condense and follow the moist adiabatic lapse rate. This is also where cloud bases should form.

Cloud Fraction - Represents the fraction of the sky that is covered by clouds. CF_lo represents clouds in the lower atmospher such a cumulus, stratus, stratocumulus, or stratonimbus, etc. CF_mi likely represents clouds in the middle atmosphere such altostratus/altocumulus or perhaps lower cirrus-type clouds. CF_hi indicates where cirrus-type clouds are most likely to occur.

I hope you find this page helpful and informative, please email me with questions/corrections/critiques of this page or the GRADs images.

Thanks!
Nick Engerer